基于两阶段聚类的电动自行车出行者选择研究Research on Mode Choice of Electric Bicycle Travelers Based on Two-Step Cluster Method
胡郁葱;陈杰;邹小健;陈枝伟;
摘要(Abstract)：
为了得到准确的电动自行车差异化管理量化决策,本文根据2014年南宁市调查数据,基于两阶段聚类方法,对电动自行车出行者进行差异化分类,在此基础上构建南宁市电动自行车与公交车之间的出行方式选择BNL(binary-nomial logit)模型,并运用SPSS 22.0对模型参数进行标定;最后结合南宁市实际情况对模型结果进行分析。本文研究结果表明:在公共交通缺乏或服务水平不高的条件下,电动自行车是中低收入居民主要的通勤出行方式之一;在提高常规公共交通服务水平的情况下,不分类模型有可能高估常规公交的分担率提高程度,分类模型能更有效地反映不同人群的差异性。本文提出的方法能为探讨南宁市电动自行车差异化管理策略提供更准确的量化决策支持。
关键词(KeyWords)： 电动自行车;两阶段聚类;差异化分类;BNL模型;出行选择
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(51408237);; 华南理工大学优硕创新基金(20160526);; 国家大学生创新创业项目(201510561102)
作者(Authors): 胡郁葱;陈杰;邹小健;陈枝伟;
DOI: 10.16088/j.issn.1001-6600.2017.03.003
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